Submitted by Nic Lenoir of ICAP At the risk of repeating myself, I hold the view that one of the big risks is China equity market blowing along with other EM and certain commodities like copper. The other day I warned that if we gapped down in Copper we would form an island reversal on local highs after failing against the former support of the bullish channel now resistance, which would have been a MAJOR bear signal. What was interesting is that overnight markets traded down enough and we looked set to gap down, but around 6/7 AM the market caught a bid
When Goldman Sachs writes extended treatises on the impact of snowfall and makes regression analyses of NESIS snowfall scores with payroll impacts, you know Goldman economists i) take their cure from Larry Summers' public caveats, ii) have an extended sense of humor, and iii) have way too much free time on their hands.
Asian shares were mixed, with tech stocks gaining after solid earnings from Intel. China charged US with “backsliding” toward protectionism; warns on Google. Chinese equity funds had a third week of outflows as the central bank tightened lending.
If there is one thing Goldman's Andrew Tilton did today, it was to read the earlier points on payrolls by Albert Edwards . Goldman provides a retort, which is in keeping with the party line, yet which does share some useful NFP information.
If anyone is left in the unenviable position of actually having to trade this sham of a market, today's odd action should have been sufficiently wierd to make these people reconsider and stay on the sidelines. That is, of course, unless said people happen to man the trading desk at 33 Liberty, in which case with a risk-return ratio of #Ref, there is no way to execute a bad trade. Either way, while almost nobody cares about equities anymore, the bond market prompted a lot of question marks
While Bernanke is preparing to hit the TV circuit (after hiring Obama's exhausted teleprompter team) to cash in on his Time Warner accolade, even as he is set to do nothing at all about the liquidity bubble forming in every aspect of the economy, the much more logical and efficient country of Norway is doing the right thing, and in making sure its economy does not overheat, has raised interest rates by 0.25% to 1.75%.
A major drop for Service ISM: the core part of the US economy is back into contraction mode. From the press release : (Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector contracted in November after two consecutive months of expansion, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business
Yet one more nail in the CRE coffin, and another reason why extend and pretend will be with us for years to come, lest investors wake up and find out just how screwed this country's economy really is. In the meantime, IYR is going to the moon.
The National Retail Federation has reported that the average Thanksgiving spend has declined from $372 in 2008 to $343 in 2009, as more shoppers sought out rock-bottom 5 am bargains: the estimated number of bargain hunters increased from 172 million to 195 million. More from the NRF : “Shoppers proved this weekend that they were willing to open their wallets for a bargain, heading out to take advantage of great deals on less expensive items like toys, small appliances and winter clothes,” said Tracy Mullin, NRF President and CEO. “While retailers are encouraged by the number of Americans who shopped over Black Friday weekend, they know they have their work cut out for them to keep people coming back through Christmas
Thursday, March 4, 2010
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