It’s hard to come up with a good title that gets you to read a post about “Fibonacci Confluence,” but it’s an important and useful tool you can learn - if you haven’t already - that can help you uncover possible targets for intraday traders to play for, and also areas of hidden resistance (or support) that sets up a reversal trade when combined with other indicators.
It’s true that failed trades sometimes can teach us more than successful trades, especially if we take the time to learn what went wrong - as in “Did I make a trading error” or “Did the market do something unexpected?” There was a particularly high probability trade set-up that triggered late Friday afternoon that failed due to the afternoon surge, but there were a few hints and lessons we can learn from this experience, so let’s take a look! First, we’ll start with the @ES (SP-mini futures) contract 5-min chart: This is a simplified chart of the @ES with the 3/10 Oscillator and NYSE TICK as lower panel indicators. The main idea of this trade set-up is a type of Bear Flag intraday where the goal is to get short on a move into overhead resistance (such as the 20 EMA) and trigger entry when a reversal candle forms (like the doji that peaked at 1,048 at 1:30 CST). This retracement rally came after a new momentum (3/10) and TICK intraday low, both of which forecast lower prices are expected due to the increase in downside momentum and selling pressure
I know - the title sounds… less than fun… but for those of you interested in learning intraday Fibonacci methods, today gave a great example of both the Retracement and Projection concept, and I wanted to share that lesson with you. Let’s take a look at the SPY intraday chart (5-min) for December 28th: If you feel overwhelmed, let’s take it one step at a time.
Per a reader’s comment, I wanted to show a quick reference grid of the NASDAQ Index stretching back to the 2000 peak above 5,000 and show three dominant Fibonacci Grids to watch as price moves into the future. Let’s see the 10-year grid, starting with the 2000 high and stretching to the 2002 low
With price resembling a “Measured Move” pattern - a type of loosely defined flag pattern - let’s take a look at the full price projection target off the March lows for both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Index… which are now mere points away from a full move. First, the S&P 500: The “Measured Move” price projection target - using the Fibonacci Projection/Extension tool - comes in near 1,150. Next, the Dow Jones: The same price projection target comes in at 10,450 in the Dow Jones Index, roughly 50 points away
Monday, February 8, 2010
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