The Meeting Deciding The Fate Of Greece Is Now In Session
Headline which tells you all you need to know: 15:32 03/09 GREEK PRIME MINISTER ENTERS MEETING WITH US TSY'S GEITHNER
Headline which tells you all you need to know: 15:32 03/09 GREEK PRIME MINISTER ENTERS MEETING WITH US TSY'S GEITHNER
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Two months ago we first presented a very gloomy outlook on Japan by Dylan Grice , one of the more erudite skeptics currently out there. Dylan's thesis was simple, and was subsequently taken up by a variety of other pundits to express comparable concerns about developed countries with burgeoning debt levels, namely that an aging population, now actively engaged in asset sales, will have less of an ability to participate in its traditional role of purchasing JGBs
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
First China comes through on its threat of disposing US securities, now Europe is rapidly isolating Wall Street from participating in European sovereign bond offerings. The Guardian reports that "for the first time in five years, no big US investment bank appears among the top nine sovereign bond bookrunners in Europe, according to Dealogic data compiled for the Guardian." Curiously, just the one bank which has recently found itself out of favor with domestic investors, Morgan Stanley, has a notable presence in Euro sovereign league tables (at number 10). The biggest loser - the dynamic duo of vampire squid and Fed Jr.
Monday, March 8, 2010
Sorry, Merkel, Papanderou et al. BaFin finds that there is no sign that CDS speculation is involved when it comes to Greek government bonds, even as the volume in cash bonds has spiked.
Monday, March 8, 2010
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has released a report "State Tax Changes in Response to the Recession" in which the center notes that "national recession has had such a devastating effect on state finances that states took in $87 billion less in tax revenue from October 2008 through September 2009 than they collected in the previous 12 months. This 11 percent decline, the steepest on record, resulted from the impact on tax collections of lost jobs, reduced wages, and lowered economic activity." And here we are, missing the forest for the Greek tree, and discussing evil CDS speculators' role in Greece barely able to make a €5 billion bond auction, when we should be all over the evil Municipal CDS speculators wreaking havoc in our own back yard.
Monday, March 8, 2010
GERMANY MERKEL: CANNOT BAN CDS MARKET OUTRIGHT GERMANY MERKEL: MIGHT NEED CDS MKT CURBS TO LIMIT SPECULATION GERMANY MERKEL: NEED TO CHANGE EU TREATIES TO HELP MEMBERS GERMANY MERKEL: MUST MULL HOW EMU, EU CAN LEGALLY HELP MEMBERS GERMANY MERKEL: POINTS TO NO-BAILOUT RULE FOR EMU MEMBERS IN EU TREATY GERMANY MERKEL: CANNOT RULE OUT NOR AFFIRM ANYTHING GERMANY MERKEL: FINANCIAL AID TO GREECE NO TOPIC CURRENTLY GERMANY MERKEL: DON'T SEE IMMEDIATE GREEK DEFAULT RISK GERMANY MERKEL: SPECULATION PARTLY TO BLAME FOR GREECE WOES GERMANY MERKEL: A EUROPEAN MONETARY FUND IS A GOOD IDEA In the meantime, apparently Sov CDS traders are demanding collateral in gold . Aside that this is news to pretty much all CDS traders, let's dissect this argument.
Monday, March 8, 2010
Some amusing headlines appearing elsewhere today, proclaiming the Greek crisis is over. Hardly: Uri Dadush of the Carnegie Endowment, and formerly of the World Bank, says that "it is virtually inevitable that Greece will either default or need a bailout of some sort." Dadush, who a week ago wrote a provocative op-ed in the FT titled " End this inflation fundamentalism ", in which he noted that "what happens in Greece will not stay in Greece" also says that "over and beyond the Greek bailout we have to do some thinking about our approach to overall fiscal and monetary approach in Europe." What? Visiting Ben Bernanke every 6 months is no longer sufficient
Monday, March 8, 2010
Submitted by the man himself in all its epilepsy-inducing grammatic glory.
Sunday, March 7, 2010
Looks like Tom Hoenig's dissension at the recent FOMC vote is starting to generate some serious traction. A paper just released by V.V.
Saturday, March 6, 2010
The appearance of the Chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel, Elizabeth Warren, on Charlie Rose is a must watch. In addition to an in depth discussion of the the consumer protection agency, which despite all valiant attempts to the contrary, will likely end up under the Fed's jurisdiction, thereby making the world's most powerful cabal even more powerful, Warren touches on a variety of other issues, including the sovereign debt situation, commercial real estate, and the one concept at the heart of it all: the lack of impairments by stockholders (and certainly by debtholders) in what was a bankrupt financial industry. The world would not have ended had banks been forced to readjust their balance sheets: the outcome would have been far simpler - all those who had their collective net wealth associated with the balance sheets, and specifically the equity tranche, of firms like Goldman, JPM, Citi, BofA and Wells would have been wiped out.
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
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