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February ETF Update: Biggest ETF Gainer In Last Month: SPY

We have closely tracked the Q4 bank influx into the SPY ETF, which on ever declining volume breadth has become the one most dominant market determining factor, on both a push and a pull basis.

Latest Four Week Auction Indirect Hit Ratio Is Back To Record Highs, Comes At 99.1%

Two weeks after the indirect hit ratio in the 4 week auction came at a record 100%, today it was once again at almost at the all time possible high, with Indirect Bids of just $6.744 billion taking down $6.683 billion, resulting in a 99.1% hit ratio. The chart of the recent Indirect hit ratio in recent 4 week bill auctions is attached. Here is the actual auction result : 4 week prices at 0.11% (nearly double the 0.056% from two weeks ago ) 75.56% allotted at high; Median rate of 0.1%, low of 0.05%; Bid to Cover 3.90, compared to 4.34 last week Indirects take down $6.68 billion of competitives, or 21.8%; Indirect hit rate comes in at 99.1% We provided the following explanation two weeks ago as to why this will likely be an ongoing theme, especially when coupled with aggressive roll offs of Bills by key investors such as China: The implications from this result: the Indirect bidders put the greatest amount of 0.000% or as close to preliminary bids as possible (remember, this means bidding at the highest actual bond price), followed by directs and primary dealers as we approached the 0.055% stop out to fill the $31 billion reverse dutch auction.

Following Up On The Japan Disaster Scenario; Or Can Still We Learn From The Failure Of Keynesianism?

Two months ago we first presented a very gloomy outlook on Japan by Dylan Grice , one of the more erudite skeptics currently out there. Dylan's thesis was simple, and was subsequently taken up by a variety of other pundits to express comparable concerns about developed countries with burgeoning debt levels, namely that an aging population, now actively engaged in asset sales, will have less of an ability to participate in its traditional role of purchasing JGBs

Wall Street Has Become Underwrita Non Grata In Europe

First China comes through on its threat of disposing US securities, now Europe is rapidly isolating Wall Street from participating in European sovereign bond offerings. The Guardian reports that "for the first time in five years, no big US investment bank appears among the top nine sovereign bond bookrunners in Europe, according to Dealogic data compiled for the Guardian." Curiously, just the one bank which has recently found itself out of favor with domestic investors, Morgan Stanley, has a notable presence in Euro sovereign league tables (at number 10). The biggest loser - the dynamic duo of vampire squid and Fed Jr.

Daily Highlights: 3.8.10

Asian share markets were higher Monday with the Nikkei up 1.4% as exporters gained. China pledged to keep prices stable this year, to rein in lending and manage consequences.

China Dissected: CLSA’s Andy Rothman Speaks

Now that China is once again back in the center of attention, we present the latest from one of the undisputed leaders in Chinese analysis (albeit extremely bullish): CLSA, and specifically Andy Rothman's latest edition of Sinology, " A Wild Ride ." In a nutshell, CLSA sees virtually no signs of overheating in China, and all is good, with lines of people in front of Hermes boutiques all over the place (with some caveats). This is ironic because lately even the Chinese press has quoted Chinese real estate investors and management teams as saying that the entire Chinese market is one unprecedented turbo-bubble. More on this soon

Weekly Chartology, And Goldman’s Ruminations On CNY Revaluation

You say you need a catalyst for the next leg up to Dow 36,000? Heeeeere's Goldman, proclaiming that a CNY revaluation is virtually a certainty

Making Sense Of A Market Which Is Now Completely Uncorrelated To The Strength Of The Dollar

Over the past three months it has become clear that one of the traditional staples of the second part of the bear market rally (the one beginning in July of 2009), the near 1.00 correlation between a weak dollar and a strong market, has broken terminally. And even with the dollar surging as problems in Europe come to the fore, the market, after dipping temporarily in early February, has staged an almost complete comeback, which has left many scratching their heads as to what the cause for this uncorrelated market move may have been. An interesting summation from one of the more prominent economic skeptics, David Rosenberg, provides some answers not only to this question, but why an economy which refuses to improve, can lead to continuous stock gains.

Daily Highlights: 3.4.10

Asian stocks decline on concern China lending to slow; Euro pares gains. Australia's January trade deficit narrows on increased iron ore shipments. China to boost defense spending by 7.5% in 2010 - slowest pace in a decade.

Daily Highlights: 3.4.10

Asian stocks decline on concern China lending to slow; Euro pares gains. Australia's January trade deficit narrows on increased iron ore shipments.