Key Market Internal signals flashed negative divergences and non-confirmations of recent S&P 500 and SPY 2009 price highs, setting up the high probability for a reversal to the downside. I wanted to highlight a chart I’ve been showing to members of the daily Idealized Trades Reports since Wednesday evening - we’re now seeing the downward action forecast by the plunge in Market Internals. Let’s take a look at the updated chart.
Having managed to survive 2009 (or so we hope- there are still a few hours left to go) we thought we might invite you to join us (virtually) for Studio Zero's annual end-of-year blow-out this evening.
It was only fitting that a year marked by irrational and erratic trading, saw a substantial volume selloff in the last 15 minutes of trading after there was absolutely no volume done all day. What sparked it
One of the great paradoxes of life is that the smarter one is, the better one realizes just how little one knows.
As you may or may not know, Zero Hedge is in the process of developing a number of premium offerings for 2010.
With every deep-thinking pundit looking out at 2010 and predicting this and that, the irony is that virtually all investment decisions will be derivatives of one simple outcome: do we have inflation or deflation. Numerous opinions have been presented recently, each of which presenting more convincing and detailed theses on why [stag/hyper] [deflation/inflation] will be the dominant theme in the year to come, accompanied by pretty charts and convoluted diagrams. And while one can write books on all the political, economic and financial aspects that will determine either outcome, we have decided to avoid that, and instead would like to remind readers of a little-read paper by Brait Capital Management , published in August of 2009, which conceptualizes all the key themes in the inflation vs deflation debate
A week ago Zero Hedge discussed the spread between the Freddie 1 Year ARM and the 30 Year fixed , concluding that the recent record spread is indicative that the Fed will do all it can to become the new subprime lender of any resort, even if it means creating exponentially more roll risk, as it seeks to lend money regardless of the probability of ultimate payback. Today Bloomberg points out that the Freddie 30 Year has just hit a 4 month high of 5.14%, a level last seen at the end of August. What is notable is that in less than two weeks the 30 Year Freddie Fixed has jumped by 20 bps.
Submitted by TrimTabs' Charles Biderman Are Federal Reserve and U.S.
The fabulous news of the day undoubtedly will be the latest release from the Dept of Labor : Initial Claims for the week ended December 26 came in at 432,000, a 22,000 decline from the prior week, and below consensus. The number was sufficient to prompt Bloomberg's Courtney Schlisserman to come up with the following observation , "Fewer Americans than anticipated filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, pointing to an improvement in the labor market that will help sustain economic growth next year ." Perhaps Courtney and Steve Liesman should sit down in a corner and finally figure out what this whole EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) business is - trust us, it is not that difficult.
China Central Bank Zhou says 2010 is crucial for 'defeating' crisis ( Bloomberg ) in the meantime his subordinated are learning the intricacies of Treasury collateralized $19.95/pop reverse repos, in advance of withdrawing trillions in excess liquidity Lawmakers want probe into aid for Fannie and Freddie - we'll spare you the Dan Brown suspense - the answer is the Federal Reserve in the 85 Broad lobby with a money printer FDIC moves to seize slice of bank stock rallies ( WSJ ) - paging the worthless Mary Schapiro - when will the insider trading in New York Community Bancorp finally be investigated? Speaking of worthless, regulatory-captured windbags, Wall Street waits as SEC fails to bring Madoff-inspired reforms ( Bloomberg ) The end of Uncle Ben's unlimited piggybank means no more gains for those who benefited from taxpayer generosity to deadbeat homeowners ( Bloomberg ) Do we need a new reserve currency?
Thursday, December 31, 2009
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